Why the auto industry should care about PQC now

Quantum computing isn’t some distant science experiment; it’s a looming reality with profound implications for vehicle security. After all, cars rolling off assembly lines today will still be on the road a decade or more from now, by which time quantum computers could render our current digital security useless. As this new era of computing rapidly takes shape, the automotive industry must confront an urgent question: How can today’s vehicles be protected against tomorrow’s threats?

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is often talked about as future-proofing, relying on new mathematical algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks and safeguard digital security even if quantum computers one day break current standards. For automotive engineers and product planners, however, it has become a present-day necessity.

Quantum computers versus today’s cryptography

Quantum computers promise to solve certain mathematical problems exponentially faster than classical computers. This is bad news for current public-key cryptosystems, which derive their security from the use of complex mathematical equations.

Many experts predict that quantum computers could be relevant by the early to mid-2030s. Crucially, adversaries don’t have to wait until then to exploit the weakness: Sensitive data encrypted or transmitted today can be harvested now and decrypted later once quantum capabilities arrive, putting long-term confidentiality at risk. Arguably, a bigger safety risk is that someone can install any firmware with forged signatures using over-the-air (OTA) updates. For the auto industry, which relies on long-lived systems, these threats are particularly urgent.

PQC encompasses algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks but remain deployable on today’s processors. These are now being standardized and offer quantum-safe alternatives to traditional methods.

Long vehicle lifecycles mean long-term risk

Cars and infrastructure have exceptionally long lifecycles compared with consumer devices. An automotive platform developed today might be in service for 15–20 years, and critical components such as engine controllers or telematics units haven’t traditionally received frequent hardware refreshes.

(Source: Adobe AI Generated)

This is compounded by the automotive industry’s development lead times: Design decisions made in the next year or two will determine the cryptographic protection of vehicles hitting the road in 2027–2028 and beyond. If those vehicles use only classical encryption, they could become vulnerable mid-life, requiring massive recalls or retrofit campaigns to address quantum-vulnerable components.

Modern cars are essentially computers on wheels, running tens of millions of lines of code across dozens of electronic control units. Safety and security demand that this code be authentic and untampered, which is why secure boot processes and OTA firmware updates are safeguarded by digital signatures (using cryptography).

Everything from infotainment systems to advanced driver-assistance systems relies on cryptographic authentication—even vehicle-to-everything communications and digital keys for entry/ignition use ECC-based credentials today—and such hyper-connectivity of cars means there are multiple channels where quantum-vulnerable cryptography is protecting critical functions.

The clock is ticking: standards and regulatory timelines

Despite the existence of quantum-resistant tools, migrating an entire industry’s cryptography is a lengthy process, and global security authorities have set aggressive timelines for this transition to ensure a safe and secure digital future.

In the United States, federal guidance and NSA’s Commercial National Security Algorithm suite have already outlined quantum-resistant replacements. There are already goals to begin using PQC for things like firmware signatures over the next five years, while national agencies in Europe such as Germany’s BSI and France’s ANSSI, among others, have issued similar calls.

Such timelines are especially pressing for the automotive sector. Automotive OEMs and suppliers must incorporate new cryptography into designs that are being finalized now for production in the late 2020s. Some manufacturers are already working on quantum-safe features for vehicles slated for 2027–2028 release.

Challenges on the road to PQC migration

There are significant migration challenges that the automotive industry must navigate. PQC algorithms generally require more memory, and storage is needed on microcontrollers to handle keys, certificates, and protocol messages. Many embedded automotive processors have tight RAM/flash budgets, so accommodating PQC may require optimizations or hardware upgrades.

Ensuring that current and future vehicles are crypto-agile is critical so that PQC algorithms can be introduced (perhaps alongside classical algorithms in a hybrid mode) and later swapped out if needed. Planning update paths for cryptographic firmware is a challenge that needs to be tackled early in the design.

Automakers also need strategies for firmware updateability that encompass cryptographic changes. This is complex and requires careful validation, as a failed update to the security mechanism could potentially brick a device.

We are likely to see a patchwork of classical and post-quantum algorithms in use simultaneously. This interim period raises interoperability issues: a repair shop’s diagnostic tool or a charging station’s authentication system might need to handle both classical and PQC credentials to communicate with different vehicles.

Likewise, standards bodies must work carefully: slight misalignments in their recommendations could lead to confusion about which algorithms to implement. The automotive industry needs to ensure quantum-safe schemes are adopted in a relatively uniform way across OEMs and suppliers.

Finally, let’s not overlook that PQC is new to many engineers. Implementing these algorithms correctly and securely requires new expertise, highlighting the growing need for upskilling across the industry as security demands evolve.

Best practices for a quantum-safe automotive future

The threat of quantum computing to current cryptography is real and coming into view just over the design horizon. What might have seemed like a luxury “future-proofing” exercise a few years ago is now recognized as urgent risk management for any system expected to be in use a decade from now.

The automotive industry, with its combination of long-lived products, critical safety stakes, and extensive connectivity, stands out as one sector that must lead in adopting PQC early. By starting the transition now with a focus on hybrid deployment, crypto agility, and protecting the most crucial assets, automakers can ensure that the cars of today will remain secure in the quantum age.

About the authors

Joppe W. Bos is a senior principal cryptographer at the Competence Center for Cryptography and Security at NXP Semiconductors. He also currently serves as secretary of the International Association for Cryptologic Research and co-editor of the Cryptology ePrint Archive. His research focuses on computational number theory and high-performance arithmetic as used in applied cryptography.

Marius Rotaru is chief software architect and technical fellow for automotive embedded systems at NXP Semiconductors and has been with the company since 2004. He is currently responsible for the definition of automotive software architecture and technologies for NXP’s advanced automotive SoCs. In this role, he is also deeply involved in worldwide development partnerships, such as AUTOSAR, contributing to the architecture of the standardized software framework for automotive intelligent mobility.