While the battle for technological supremacy has often played out in product launches and innovation races, the struggle between China and the United States over semiconductor dominance has taken a more strategic form. Instead of soldiers and missiles, this conflict is driven by trade regulations, blacklists, and geopolitical manoeuvring.

What triggered this escalating chip war, how are both countries navigating the fallout, and what are the implications of China’s latest anti-dumping probe into US analogue integrated circuits?

The Ongoing China-US Chip War

Over the past several years, China and the United States have been locked in a chip war, a conflict fought not with tanks, but with export controls, tariffs, and supply chain restrictions. The US moved first, tightening access to advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment in an effort to curb China’s technological rise. China responded in kind, restricting rare earth exports and limiting access to domestic markets.

This tit-for-tat between the two titans has produced mixed results, some good and some bad. Washington succeeded in reducing Chinese influence over critical hardware sectors, but at the cost of higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and mounting pressure on domestic manufacturers. Beijing, meanwhile, lost access to leading-edge process technology but doubled down on self-reliance, investing heavily in homegrown fabrication and design capabilities. What began as a containment strategy may ultimately accelerate China’s semiconductor independence.

The stakes are rising because this is no longer just about consumer electronics. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and other data-intensive markets rely on high-performance chips. Both nations view control over these technologies as a matter of economic security, if not national survival. That is why the chip war is unlikely to end soon, and is anything but a mere trade dispute.

China Launches Probe On US Analog IC Devices

Recently, Beijing has opened an anti-dumping investigation into US analogue IC suppliers, citing a sharp increase in import volumes and a collapse in pricing that has undercut domestic producers. According to the Ministry of Commerce, imports of US mature-node ICs rose 37% between 2022 and 2024, while average prices fell by more than half. Officials argue this price compression “suppressed” the competitiveness of local vendors. 

Analysts expect the anti-dumping investigation to run for at least a year, influencing sales across the analogue semiconductor sector. Reports indicate that imports of US chips rose by over a third from 2022 to 2024, while pricing dropped by more than half — a trend that the Ministry of Commerce claims “lowered and suppressed” domestic sales performance. This investigation follows heightened US–China tensions and coincides with scheduled diplomatic meetings in Europe, underscoring how semiconductor trade disputes have evolved into strategic economic instruments.

The investigation, expected to last at least a year, could dent sales for US firms such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, while boosting Chinese analog specialists like Silergy, SGMicro, Southchip, Joulwatt, and Novosense. These companies operate primarily on a fabless model and have faced tight margins against larger, vertically integrated competitors.

Zhang Guobin, founder of the semiconductor industry portal eetrened.com, noted that companies such as Silergy, SGMicro, Southchip Semiconductor Technology, Joulwatt, and Novosense Microelectronics stand to gain the most from the probe. These firms produce analogue chips for power management, audio systems, communications, and automotive electronics — markets that rely on mature manufacturing processes between 90 and 300 nanometres. This positions them to capitalise on any long-term import restrictions placed on American suppliers.

Analogue ICs account for roughly 15% of global semiconductor sales and remain indispensable for processing real-world signals such as voltage, current, sound, and temperature. Unlike digital logic, they typically rely on mature process nodes (90 to 300 nanometers is generally common), where characteristics like noise performance outweigh the benefits of scaling.

According to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics and Frost & Sullivan, analogue chips account for about 15 per cent of global semiconductor sales, with China remaining the largest single consumer. The sector’s sustained growth has been driven by rising demand for electric vehicles, 5G communications, and Internet of Things devices — areas where analogue circuitry remains indispensable. Market analysts forecast that China’s analogue chip market could reach US$44 billion by 2025, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of over 8 per cent.

What the New Probe Could Mean for China and the US

The immediate effect of China’s anti-dumping probe is obvious: it tilts the playing field in favour of domestic analogue chipmakers. By making US imports more difficult and costly, Beijing not only boosts local sales but also accelerates its push for technological independence. For US companies, the downside is equally clear; lost market share in the world’s largest analogue consumer market translates into reduced revenue, and by extension, less capital to reinvest in R&D.

But the story doesn’t just end there, as trade restrictions tend to cut both ways. The US retains the ability to restrict access to analogue devices and related technology, limiting what Chinese firms can buy abroad. In doing so, Washington can both shield its own intellectual property and slow down China’s climb up the design ladder. Forced self-reliance is a powerful motivator, but it also means China must develop entire product lines from scratch, a process that rarely runs smoothly. Expect bottlenecks, compatibility issues, and the occasional design dead end.

In short, the probe may give Chinese companies breathing room in the near term, but it also raises the bar for domestic innovation. For the US, the measure represents another lost opportunity in China’s growing semiconductor market. Both sides gain something, and both sides bleed something, a fitting description of the semiconductor cold war.